Like many of you, this Nuggets fan felt broken after Wednesday night’s embarrassing and indefensible loss to a team in the midst of an active tank job. My confidence in this iteration of Jokic Ball being able to cobble together a championship run after what has been a disappointing three months of injuries, lack of defensive effort, and questionable coaching has never been lower.
Since the Nuggets seem content to pack it in on any given night—even with a top-four seed now very much in jeopardy and even at home—I’ve decided to pack in this preview by having Claude write it.
Slop in, slop out, Nuggets.
The Nuggets host a Toronto Raptors team that’s been quietly hot, riding a three-game winning streak into altitude. Denver is coming off a frustrating loss in Memphis — a game they shouldn’t have dropped against a lottery-bound squad — and sits sixth in the West with only 12 games left to improve their seeding. The team routed Philadelphia on Tuesday night but didn’t get into Memphis until 4:30 a.m. due to flight delays, so rest and rhythm are the storyline heading into tonight. This is a “handle your business” game on paper, and the Nuggets are 70.7% win probability favorites for a reason.
The Basics
Who: Toronto Raptors (39-29) at Denver Nuggets (42-28)
When: 7:00 PM MST
Where: Ball Arena, Summery Denver, Colorado
How to watch/listen: Altitude TV / + / AM
Rival Blog: Raptors HQ
Injury Report | Nuggets: Peyton Watson—out (hamstring)
Toronto Raptors: Chucky Hepburn—out (knee); Collin Murray-Boyles—doubtful (thumb)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Christian Braun’s resurgence
Christian Braun has been on a tear lately, scoring 22 against the 76ers and 26 against the Grizzlies, and he’s the kind of secondary scorer who can blow this game open when defenses sell out on Jokic and Murray. Cameron Johnson is also shooting 43.1% from three on the season and dropped 18 and 20 in his last two games — if Toronto tries to pack the paint against Jokic’s passing, Johnson will make them pay. The other big development: Aaron Gordon is available tonight, giving Denver back a critical piece on both ends of the floor. Watch how the Nuggets’ half-court offense flows with AG back as a lob threat and cutter next to Jokic. The Nuggets lead the league in three-point percentage at 39.1% — if they’re splashing early, this one could get out of hand.
The thing to remember: Don’t sleep on Toronto
The Raptors are 20-13 on the road this season and just blew out Chicago 139-109. They have real players — Brandon Ingram averaging 21.9, RJ Barrett at 19, Scottie Barnes at 18.7, and Immanuel Quickley running the show at 6 assists per game. Toronto ranks second in the league in fast break points, and if the Nuggets are careless with the ball — Jokic’s 3.9 turnovers per game are a career high this season, and he coughed it up 10 times in Memphis — the Raptors can absolutely turn those into transition buckets and keep this competitive. Denver’s 7-8 since the All-Star break is real, and several of those losses came in overtime or by three points or fewer. The Nuggets have to close this time.
The thing to bet: Nuggets ML + Over
The spread is hovering around Nuggets -7.5, and honestly, that feels like a lot for a Denver team that has struggled to put opponents away lately. The Nuggets are 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites of 5+ points, with three outright losses in that stretch. The underdog has also covered in 7 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings between these two teams.
If you’re betting the Nuggets — and as a fan, of course you are — the moneyline at around -270 is the safer play. The total is set at 237.5, and the last six games between these teams at Ball Arena have gone over. With Denver’s offensive firepower and Toronto’s willingness to push pace, the over feels like the sharpest angle tonight. I’d lean Nuggets ML + Over as the parlay if you’re feeling frisky.
—Claude out
CODA: Death once had a near-Chuck-Norris experience. But I guess Chuck had unfinished business. RIP Legend.
