The Denver Nuggets travel to Memphis to face the Grizzlies in a battle of two teams whose fortunes are being affected by early injuries. Memphis is 6-11 but have won their last two, while Denver is coming off a home loss to the Sacramento Kings. The Nuggets are down two starters in Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon, neither of whom are now expected back before the New Year, and reserve Julian Strawther is also out. The Grizzlies are in even worse shape with 5 players out (including Ja Morant) and they recently signed Kobe Bufkin to a 10-day contract as a hardship exception. Denver has the advantage with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray looking like they’ll be ready to go, Memphis has the homecourt and the desperation. This one isn’t going to be clean, but Denver needs to figure out how to win more ugly games – and tonight’s a fresh opportunity to learn.
The Basics
Who: Denver Nuggets (12-4) at Memphis Grizzlies (6-11)
When: 6:00 PM MT
Where: FedExForum, Memphis TN
How to watch/listen: Altitude/ + / Radio. Tell security you are there to feng shui the locker rooms to get rid of the injury curses for both teams.
Rival Blog: Beale Street Bears
Injury Report: Nuggets: Aaron Gordon – out (hamstring), Julian Strawther – out (back), Christian Braun – out (foot). Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr. – questionable (Ankle). OUT – Ja Morant (Calf), Ty Jerome (Calf), Brandon Clarke (Knee), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Toe), Javon Small (Toe)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: What does Denver’s rotation look like now?
The Nuggets are missing three rotation players, including two key starters. That drafts Peyton Watson for the starting lineup for certain, but what else does it do to the rotation? DaRon Holmes was recalled from the G League and should get real consideration for minutes as Denver’s only power forward with both offensive and defensive capabilities, but Denver may not want him to get a bunch of minutes quite this early in the season. It may not be up to them, however. Jock Landale and Santi Aldama have both been doing good work on the frontline for the Grizzlies and have the length most of Denver’s other forward options lack, and the 7’4 Zach Edey is back to logging 25 minutes a game this week after missing most of the season thus far. Smaller lineups for Denver would require Jokic to carry the rebounding and interior scoring burden solo again. Perhaps this is a game where Denver features backup center Jonas Valanciunas more and plays to their frontcourt size that way, but that forces Jokic into a power forward role himself when Big Val is on the court, and also puts the Nuggets into zone defense by default on most possessions.
From a guard perspective, Denver needs Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown to make shots. They were a combined 3-for-14 in the loss to Sacramento, and the defense wasn’t up to snuff in that game either. Denver won’t be chasing the injured Ja Morant around in this one, but the 6’6 Cedric Coward is going to be on the All-Rookie team and Cameron Spencer will take and make threes if left open. Denver’s Cam Johnson has been good on his defensive rotations but Peyton Watson can’t do it all himself and Spencer Jones has been fouling a lot and scoring almost never as he adjusts to the NBA playstyle. Denver signed veteran guards for a reason, and those vets will need to contribute on both ends to help stop Memphis runs.
The thing to remember: Both teams need to remember how to finish strong, but Denver needs to start the right way
The Grizzlies have a habit of faltering late in winnable games this year, with 5 losses in clutch games that are close late. The Nuggets are 1-4 in those games. Nobody has been able to distance themselves from Denver, but as the Nuggets showed in the bad loss to the Sacramento Kings, sometimes they simply cannot find stops when they need them. The Nuggets have a habit of careless turnovers in losses. When Denver takes care of the ball the games are not usually close enough to be clutch contests – the Nuggets simply cruise to victory. But when Denver gives up the ball – and especially when they are live turnovers that turn into points – other teams have the ability to hang around and Denver has trouble shutting the door. That will be even worse without two of Denver’s top defenders in Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun.
The Grizzlies have been patching their lineups together and don’t have a great offense to show for it (ranked 25th in Offensive Rating compared to Denver’s 2nd-ranked effort) but Memphis does have a middle-of-the-pack defense, they can get themselves to the line, and with the 6th-fewest turnovers per game they have kept control of the ball despite the patchwork rotation. The Nuggets need to be careful with the ball early to avoid a tighter game late. Against a team that can’t keep up on offense without help, Denver needs to avoid mistakes and potentially a close late-game situation all together. Get the work done in the first three quarters.
The thing to bet: a Jokic triple-double
I hate to be boring but Jokic will be getting a lot of Denver’s rebounds on the interior, he will obviously need to be a scoring threat, and because the Grizzlies are going to focus on him a lot I expect a bunch of ball distribution from him especially early as he tries to get his rotation mates both new and experienced into rhythm together. All that says triple-double incoming to me.
