The Nuggets host the Dallas Mavericks on Monday night, with both clubs looking to win their second game in a row. Denver has been bad at home, losing three straight at Ball Arena, while the Mavericks finally won their second road game of the year against the Clippers on Saturday to snap a 3-game losing streak overall. Both teams are trying to find their rhythm while being down key players, but the Mavericks have Anthony Davis back (in theory, depending on his game-time condition) and are trying to put some winning elements around rookie star Cooper Flagg. This is normally the “Welcome to the NBA” game that Nikola Jokic would drop on a young player’s head, but we’ll see what happens – first Denver had better figure out how to defend if they want to win in front of the home crowd.
The Basics
Who: Denver Nuggets (14-5) vs Dallas Mavericks (6-15)
When: 7:00 PM MT
Where: Ball Arena, Denver CO
How to watch/listen: Altitude/ + / Radio. Bring sage and explain you need to get the ghosts out of the arena to cleanse the aura and let Denver win in Ball Arena again.
Rival Blog: Mavs Moneyball
Injury Report: Nuggets: Nikola Jokic – probable (wrist), Aaron Gordon – out (hamstring), Julian Strawther – out (back), Christian Braun – out (foot). Mavericks: Anthony Davis – probable (Calf management), P.J. Washington – questionable (ankle), Brandon Williams – questionable (thigh), Daniel Gafford – doubtful (ankle management), Dante Exum – out (knee), Dereck Lively – out foot), Kyrie Irving – out (knee)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Will Denver remember how to get stops and hold onto the rock?
The Nuggets have lost their last three games at Ball arena while giving up 130, 128 and 139 points in those contests – all in regulation! They gave up 80 points in the second half against a San Antonio Spurs team without Victor Wembanyama. Denver can obviously score – they have the number 1 scoring offense in the NBA despite playing at the 26th-highest pace. They are so efficient at everything it feels like nothing can go wrong – until it becomes time to defend. Denver has been abysmal at stopping other teams since Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun went on the injured list, but those guys aren’t coming back for at least a month still – Denver has to find a workable defensive solution for all of December.
The Mavericks meanwhile tend to play (and mostly lose) close games. Dallas has lost 7 games by 7 points or fewer this season, while Denver only has two single-digit wins all year. Dallas is going to try to keep the game within reach and take it down the stretch, the same way Denver lost to Chicago, Sacramento and San Antonio. Dallas is not a team that creates a lot of turnovers (19th in the league) but Denver hasn’t needed teams to be good at it to gift a bunch of silly turnovers at the worst times. Denver needs to shut down a team that isn’t running with it’s hall-of-fame ball-handler and instead has the rock in the hands of the rookie Flagg for large portions of the game. There is a reason Dallas is bottom-5 in assists, but it’s up to Denver to take advantage and not let the Mavs hang around. Flagg had 35 points and 8 boards in the Clippers win, and Denver doesn’t have AG to put against him. Watson and Spencer Jones will need to slow him down, and then somebody needs to make sure Klay Thompson doesn’t go off in the 4th like he did against Los Angeles. Know Your Personnel and for everyone’s sake, please don’t leave every corner 3 undefended. That really can’t be the game plan.
The thing to remember: Unless he gets the Serbian Flu, old friend Anthony Davis is back for this one
The thing Dallas HAS done well defensively is block shots and limit second chance points. Gafford will probably miss this game, though, which means it’s up to the Nuggets to attack the glass and get AD into foul trouble. Once they clear the shot blocker out, Denver can attack all three levels. Davis can’t handle Nikola Jokic, so whether it’s Dwight Powell or Naji Marshall trying to help out the Nuggets need to take advantage. Jamal Murray has had his best start to a season in his career, Cam Johnson is now adjusted to playing Jokic Ball and is contributing on both ends. Peyton Watson can now make teams pay for sagging off him. Feed the best player in the world and let him decide how you are going to win offensively, whether that means he takes 5 shots or 25. His offensive choices have been almost perfect this year – if everyone does their jobs (and also punishes AD) they should be able to send the Mavs home with an L on the way out.
The thing to bet: a Nuggets win
I am going to keep saying it until they win one at home, because this is ridiculous. Win the game at home and defend home court for a team at the end of a tough West Coast road trip! Just get it done.
