The Denver Nuggets get an early tip today against the Dallas Mavericks with a classic Sunday matinee game. It’s also the first of two straight games against the Mavericks, both in Dallas. They have been a bit of a thorn in Denver’s side lately. Last season there was the infamous Kyrie Irving buzzer beating left handed floater and they’ve split the season series thus far this year, with a particularly painful loss in the NBA Cup. However, the Mavericks are currently dealing with some major health problems and neither Kyrie, nor star Luka Doncic is playing today. These two games could also decide the playoff tiebreaker for two teams that are currently a half game apart in the standings so it’s a fairly important two game trip to D-Town for the Nuggets.
The Essentials
Who: Denver Nuggets (22-15) vs Dallas Mavericks (22-16)
When: 1:00PM MST
Where: I’m sorry but this game is overbooked…Arena. Dallas, TX.
How to watch/listen: Denver Stiffs does not condone piracy…unless it’s the romanticized 17th century type. Altitude TV where available, Altitude+, NBA League Pass for those not in the Nuggets market, Altitude Radio 92.5FM.
Rival Blog: Mavs Moneyball
The Matchup
| Position | Nuggets | Mavericks | Advantage |
| PG | Russell Westrbook | Spencer Dinwiddie | Nuggets |
| SG | Christian Braun | Klay Thompson | Even |
| SF | Michael Porter Jr. | Naji Marshall | Nuggets |
| PF | Aaron Gordon | P.J. Washington | Even |
| C | Nikola Jokic | Dereck Lively II | Nuggets |
| Bench | Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, Jalen Pickett, DeAndre Jordan | Jaden Hardy, Quentin Grimes, Daniel Gafford, Maxi Kleber, Olivier-Maxence Prosper | Even |
Injury report: Nikola Jokic – probable (illness), Aaron Gordon – questionable (calf), Jamal Murray – questionable (knee), Vlatko Cancar – out (knee), DaRon Holmes II – out (achilles), PJ Hall – out (G-League), Spencer Jones – out (G-League); Luka Doncic – out (calf), Kyrie Irving – out (back), Dante Exum – out (wrist).
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Who’s playing for Denver
Three of Denver’s core four are listed on the injury report (sidebar: Denver has played 37 games so far this season. Michael Porter Jr. has played in every single one. He’s now played in 150 of the last 151 games…so much for that Clippers doctor). Nikola Jokic will play, though he looked a bit winded in his first game back from illness on Friday so how much will he have in the tank for an early game today remains to be seen (it’s Nikola…I’m not worried). The other two players are far more intriguing. On the downswing, Jamal Murray exited Friday’s game at the half with knee soreness. Coach Michael Malone said Jamal pulled himself from the game because his knee just wasn’t feeling right. If he plays today then hopefully it’s because he’s fully back. Personally I’d like to see them give him a rest for at least these two Dallas games. Denver has the talent to beat the Mavericks sans Irving and Doncic, even if Jamal is out. On the upside, Aaron Gordon is listed as questionable after being doubtful on Friday. Gordon has missed the last nine games with a calf injury that also kept him out of ten games earlier this season. I’m hoping he will play. The Nuggets defense has sorely missed him and getting him back will be a big boost.
The thing to remember: still some quality players on this roster
Yes Dallas is missing their top two players but no one should be fooled into thinking this will be like playing the Brooklyn Nets. The Mavericks are the defending Western Conference champions and you don’t get to the Finals on two guys alone. Dereck Lively II is having a fine sophomore season and has taken on a large scoring role with Irving and Doncic out, Naji Marshall killed the Nuggets in that NBA Cup game (a game where Doncic sat btw), P.J. Washington is never afraid to shoot, Klay Thompson could always have a throwback game. There’s enough pieces on this roster that this is still a dangerous team. Denver by all means should have the advantage though. Even if Murray and Gordon end up sitting out, Porter and Jokic would still be the two best players on the floor and Russell Westbrook would be the third if he’s having a good Russ game. Nuggets need to take care of business in Texas over the next three days.
The thing to bet: Over
Going to keep it simple on this one. Currently the under/over on BetMGM sits at 229.5. A couple things to consider here. First and foremost, day games are weird. I am staying away from player props today because day games inevitably play out differently for some guys vs others when their routines are so impacted. Second, I feel like this iteration of the Nuggets is the type to be lacking energy in an early game and low energy = low defense. Third, in the two games these teams played thus far this season the point totals were 242 & 243.
