For the third time in four years, the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves will meet in the playoffs. The teams have been evenly matched over the last few years, splitting their last 28 games since 2022 at 14-14. The Nuggets are looking to avenge their Game 7 collapse two years ago that let the Timberwolves move on to the Western Conference Finals, while the Wolves want to continue their run of being contenders and avoid a first-round setback. Maybe no two teams in either conference know each other as well as these two teams, but while Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert have faced Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic many times, it’s the role-players this year that will look to make their mark in this series. There’s something a little new in the additions both teams have made over the past year to introduce the next stage of one of the most heated rivalries in the West, and it starts again tonight!
The Basics
Who: Denver Nuggets (0-0) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (0-0)
When: 1:30 PM MST
Where: Ball Arena, Denver CO
How to watch/listen: Prime Video
Rival Blog: Canis Hoopus
Injury Report | Nuggets: Spencer Jones—questionable (hamstring); Peyton Watson—out (hamstring)
Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards—questionable (knee)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: How are the guards defended? The Nuggets have been three-point snipers all year. Jamal Murray and Tim Hardaway Jr. each surpassed Michael Porter Jr.’s previous Nuggets record for three-pointers made in a season, and the Nuggets have one of the best-shooting perimeter squads in these playoffs. They don’t always shoot as often as they should, though, and the question for the Wolves is whether they can afford to double Jokic in the paint and hope the guards miss their kickout threes. The consideration there is obviously how to stop the patented Denver 1-5 pick and roll between Murray and Jokic as well as cut Jokic off as a scorer, but Cam Johnson has been lights out as a shooter in the past few weeks after recovering from injury and hasn’t been shy about taking the open ones also. Christian Braun is probably the option that Minnesota will pivot away from, as his prior three-point shooting in the playoffs hasn’t really worked out, but he knows that too. Denver WILL get open threes – whether they can make them and whether Minnesota can use Ayo Dosunmu and Jaden McDaniels to cut off Jamal’s driving attacks will be a big key to how Denver’s offense functions.
On the flip side, Denver has to figure out whether to to try to contain Anthony Edwards or let him get his while limiting everyone else. Braun has a tough matchup ahead of him, and with both Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones either limited due to hamstring issues or potentially out of the series entirely, Denver is missing its second wave of defenders to throw at the Ant problem. They want him to be shooting long twos rather than threes or layups, but keeping him in that range is going to be a team-wide problem to solve.
Denver will probably try to put AG on Randle and try to cancel out his driving ability big-on-big. That will let others stay home on Minnesota’s guard and wing shooters and let Joker play more at the level to deny Ant early penetration. but if Edwards (and Ayo) can break down the defense for easy finishes it’s going to throw Denver’s whole gameplan off. In the close minutes it will probably come down to clutch tough scoring from the stars of both teams. But getting there involves keeping the math problem stable, and not allowing open shots from guards to create real momentum and separation.
The thing to remember: The team that carries its intensity from Game 1 through the finish wins – but that means you better show up in Game 1. Both Denver and Minnesota have had their letdowns this year. Both teams suffered injury upheavals and lineup changes and the inability to just Find The Switch for stretches of the regular season. Winning Game 1 does not mean winning the series, but if you can’t get up for Game 1 then that’s a whole different problem. The Nuggets will have the crowd to buoy them, while the Wolves will have to provide their own fuel when Denver goes on one of its patented runs, but both teams know what is expected of them – and what it takes to beat the other. I expect the Wolves to show up for a fight, and for Denver to take them as seriously as they deserve. This should be the most serious and intense series of the first round, and if it’s not it will be because one team manages to impose their will in a way that hasn’t really happened with these teams since the 2023 playoffs.
The thing to bet: A Denver win. It’s at home, after a long rest, with the crowd to juice the home team. Denver has no reason to come out slow (despite the afternoon tip-off) so with both teams at full speed and with keeping home court on the line, Denver should take the dub. It just may not be a ton of fun getting there.
