The Nuggets have won three-in-a-row for the first time since 2023, it feels like, and are seeing improved results in the clutch after last night’s two-point win over the short-handed Phoenix Suns. But the NBA schedulers are back at it again today, giving the good guys a 9:00 p.m. start time on the road followed by an 8:00 p.m. start back home (with a flight delay thrown in just for kicks).
Adding insult to fatigue, the team gets the rested Dallas Mavericks tonight who have beaten them twice already this year, hanging 131 in both wins. It feels like the making of yet another schedule loss in a season of brutal back-to-backs, but the Nuggets still have a shot at the three-seed if they can hang with the Lakers—-a team who’s had twice as many days at home and received the most favorable whistle in the league again this season.
Fortunately, Peyton Watson should be able to rotate in for Aaron Gordon tonight as the team continues to be cautious with both players’ hamstrings heading into the playoffs.
The Basics
Who: Dallas Mavericks (23-49) @ Denver Nuggets (45-28)
When: Less than 24 hours from the start of their last game, again
Where: Ball Arena, The High Desert
How to watch/listen: NBC / Altitude TV / Koz
Rival Blog: Mavs Moneyball
Injury Report | Nuggets: Aaron Gordon—questionable (hamstring management); Peyton Watson—questionable (hamstring management)
Dallas Mavericks: Daniel Gafford—questionable (shoulder); Kyrie Irving—out (ACL); Dereck Lively II—out (foot); Caleb Martin—out (foot); Brandon Williams—out (concussion)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Can Jokic continue to cut down on the turnovers?
Nikola keeps putting up video game numbers across the stat sheet, which MVP voters have grown bored with, apparently. Uncharacteristically, though, his eyepopping statlines have also included turnovers, especially since the All-Star break. In the last 18 games, he’s averaging 4.2 turnovers including an NBA record 10 last week. In a vacuum, a turnover rate that high would be somewhat alarming, but when compared to his league-leading 10.7 assists during that stretch, his top-10 usage rate, and all the disruption the team has had from injuries, it’s not necessarily anything to worry about yet.
Still, Big Honey is typically more careful with the ball and will need to start curbing the mistakes against a Mavericks team with a lot of athletic length on defense. While not the defensive challenge they were expected to be after departing with Anthony Davis earlier this year, the Mavericks do average the 6th most steals per game in the league and play with hustle. They’re also coming off of two tough losses and know the Nuggets will be fatigued, so ball security could be the swing factor.
The thing to remember: Cooper Flagg has been a problem
The first pick in the draft has lived up to the hype as the fortuitous replacement for Luka Dončić. On the season, the Duke standout is averaging 20.3 PPG / 6.6 RPG / 4.6 APG / 1.1 SPG / 0.9 BPG in 33.8 minutes per game with his only real weakness being the three-ball. As a (cruel) reminder, he hung 33 on Denver in December on 14/21 shooting—a game in which Jokic, Murray, Johnson, and Watson all played. And in the one game Denver beat Dallas, he went out with just six points after getting injured in the first half.
So Cooper is a good test for a near full-strength Nuggets defense that will be fighting fatigue and needs to get in sync by April.
The thing to bet: Dallas +12 (-110)
The Nuggets have struggled against Dallas in every game this year, and the one win they got was only by 9 as the Mavs closed the gap in the second half. Ball Arena has also not been the dominate homecourt of seasons past. If Denver can pull this out given their unfavorable travel schedule, it seems like a decent bet it’ll be by a 10-point margin or less.
