The Nuggets are in Dallas tonight on a back-to-back, their 9th road game in the last 11. Denver is still without all-everything center Nikola Jokic and several key role players, but all eyes have been on Jamal Murray and Peyton Watson, who have carried the Western Conference’s 2nd best team to a 5-3 record without their MVP center. After another 30-point game including several clutch plays in last night’s win in New Orleans, Mal has his first All-Star spot seemingly on lock down and should be on a short list of guards in consideration for All-NBA honors.
The Mavericks continue to deal with the fallout of the Worst Trade of the Millennium as Anthony Davis is on the shelf again and may be traded, or he might not be (and maybe he wants to be, or maybe he doesn’t). Cooper Flagg is doing his thing, regardless, living up to the pre-draft hype on both ends of the court. The 6’9 forward scored 33 in Dallas’ one-point win over the Nuggets (with Jokic) in December, a loss the team would no doubt like to avenge.
The Basics
Who: Denver Nuggets (27-13) at Dallas Mavericks (15-25)
When: 7:30 PM MST
Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas
How to watch/listen: ESPN / Altitude TV / + / 92.5
Rival Blog: Mavs Moneyball
Injury Report | Nuggets: Christian Braun—day-to-day (ankle); Cameron Johnson—out (knee); Nikola Jokic—out (knee); Jonas Valanciunas—out (calf)
Mavericks: Max Christie—day-to-day (illness); Anthony Davis—out (hand); Dante Exum—out (knee); Kyrie Irving—out (ACL); Dereck Lively II—out (foot); P.J. Washington—out (ankle); Brandon Williams—out (illness)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Peyton Watson vs. Cooper Flagg
Calvin Booth’s 3.3 PPG find from UCLA has been a revelation during the last 10 games. In 36.5 MPG, PWat is averaging
- PTS: 22.1
- FG: 8.0 / 15.6 (51.3%)
- 3PT: 2.0 / 4.8 (41.7%)
- FT: 4.1 / 5.6 (73.2%)
- REB: 6.2
- AST: 2.7
As an interesting comp, his production is very similar to MPJ’s season for the Nets, as Peyton is even shooting 42% from three on real volume. He’s also been a menace on defense, where his perimeter length and athleticism make him a versatile on-ball and help defender—an upgrade over MPJ in that area, for sure.
Watson’s matchup tonight, however, has been producing at a similar rate all year. After an up-and-down start, Flagg has been a consistent leader and producer on both ends, now averaging 19/6.5/4 on improving shooting splits while also playing with a relentless motor. Still just 19, Cooper’s already 2-0 against Jokic and the Nuggets and needs to be contained tonight by Swatson, Spencer Jones, and Aaron Gordon if they’re going to avoid a third straight.
The thing to remember: The Nuggets schedule is now in their favor
Having survived the 7-game gauntlet through the Eastern Conference Circle of Hell, the Nuggets schedule softens considerably through the end of the month. Starting tonight against the 15-25 Mavericks, only 2 of their next 10 games are against playoff teams, and both of those games are in Denver. They even get the Wizards twice.
If the team can keep up the high-level defense, effort, clutch shot-making, and unexpected contributions from one-time back-of-the-bench guys like Zeke Nnaji and Jalen Pickett, they should head into the February 1st game against Oklahoma City still within striking distance of the one seed and (hopefully) reinforced by the return of Jok, Cam, and Val.
The thing to bet: Parlay | Murray +8 assists/Watson +20 points
Murray’s been on a playmaking tear, averaging 11 APG over his last 5, now 7.5 APG for the season, by far a career high. Watson, too, has been nearly a lock for 20 PPG over his last 10, and nothing much is likely to change until Jokic returns. The one caveat is that Dallas is a very good defensive team, but without Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Dante Exum, and others, Jamal and Peyton should have enough opportunities on offense to keep their production rolling.
