For the second time this week the Denver Nuggets host the Houston Rockets. The first contest went to overtime, with the Nuggets winning in overtime 128-125. The Rockets will be looking to get even, as Denver has squeaked out two victories over Houston already this year, and after falling in overtime to the New Orleans Pelicans as well the Rockets will be desperate to stop the skid and find their footing on this sudden road trip exacerbated by the NBA Cup alterations. The Nuggets will take the season tie-breaker with a win today, so can Denver keep winning close or will Houston find a way to break through in these tight encounters?

The Basics

Who: Denver Nuggets (20-6) vs Houston Rockets (16-8)

When: 3:00 PM MT

Where: Ball Arena, Denver CO

How to watch/listen: Altitude/ + / Radio. Say you’re bringing the Icy Hot for Peyton Watson’s trunk contusion.

Rival Blog: The Dream Shake

Injury Report: Nuggets: Peyton Watson – questionable (trunk contusion), Aaron Gordon – out (hamstring), Christian Braun – out (foot). Rockets: Tari Eason – questionable (left meniscus), Fred VanVleet — Out (ACL repair). Dorian Finney-Smith — Out (ankle surgery).

The Three Things

The thing to watch for: How long will the lull last?

The Nuggets have this habit of playing like they have mastered basketball for a stretch, immediately followed by the kind of hoops that make you wonder if they’ve ever met before. Denver scored 35 points in less than half a quarter in their win against the Magic. When they’re on, they can be absolutely volcanic. They are the top-rated offense in the league for a reason, and both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are playing amazing basketball through the first 2 months of the season.

But the Rockets have already seen Denver twice. They’ve lost in excruciating fashion to the Nuggets twice. They have length and strength inside with Sengun and Adams, and they have rangy defenders like Amen Thompson who can absolutely harass Jamal Murray. They have shooters, specifically Kevin Durant who has not yet lit up Denver this year but would absolutely love to. Denver had a small lull against the Magic after a very slow start and then that fiery output. If the Nuggets can start on time – or at least as much as teams usually do in afternoon starts – and keep the lulls to a couple of minutes rather than a couple of quarters they can snag the season series and playoff tie-breaker. If not, Houston has the firepower to shoot back and Denver – with its three best defenders either out or potentially hampered – have to find a way to keep up while slowing the Rockets down in key stretches. It’s worked twice so far, but the Nuggets may need to change up the formula.

The thing to remember: Secure the rock, and also take care of it

Denver’s offense has been so good this year that really the only thing that can slow them down is their own errors. The Nuggets had just 10 turnovers against the Rockets despite all that on-ball pressure Houston can force, and that let the Nuggets overcome the 46-38 rebounding deficit. They can either turn the ball over and clean the glass, or give up boards but not the ball – but they cannot fail at both and win. Denver is the 6th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA this year but only 15th overall. The Rockets lead the league in offensive rebounding and overall rebounding. Denver needs to limit second-chance points and not provide easy opportunities for runouts and finishes by the Rockets. Control the pace, control the rock, and force Houston to play Nuggets Basketball.

The thing to bet: Cam Johnson over on points

Cam is hitting hard shots and making his rotations, and with Houston likely keying on Murray it will give Cam more shot opportunities. Now that his confidence is there to make them, he can be an X-factor in preventing lulls and keeping the offense on track when Houston forces them into late-clock situations. I expect a good game from Johnson.