The mood is sour in the Mile High. A season that seemed to promise another deep playoff run feels like it’s stalling out before it ever really got going. Plagued by persistent defensive collapses. the Nuggets actually started the 2025-26 season as one of the best defenses in the NBA. But after Monday night’s gut shot that all but sealed the MVP for SGA, Denver has fallen to 22nd in defensive rating, barely ahead of the rebuilding Chicago Bulls and G-League Pacers. They’ve been especially bad in the clutch where they seem unable to get turnovers, stops, or even clear the glass consistently.
Next up is a back-to-back against a pair of Texas contenders ahead of the Nuggets in the standings and playing better than them. While the Houston Rockets have dropped two of three in the matchup so far, they’re 9-5 since February 7th with wins against OKC, LAC, ORL, and TOR and a couple of two-point losses to the Knicks and Warriors. The Nuggets are 6-7 in the same stretch, including a 39-point embarrassment at home against the Knicks over the weekend, and they seem out of answers on defense.
They’ll have to find them to hang with the long and relentless Rockets and scorching-hot Spurs, or they’ll risk dropping down into play-in position in a top-heavy Western Conference.
The Basics
Who: Denver Nuggets (39-26) vs Houston Rockets (40-24)
When: 8:00 PM MST
Where: Ball Arena, Denver
How to watch/listen: ESPN / Altitude TV / + / Tuner
Rival Blog: The Dream Shake
Injury Report | Nuggets: Cameron Johnson—probable (back); Jamal Murray—probable (ankle); Peyton Watson—out (hamstring)
Houston Rockets: Steven Adams—out (ankle); Jae’Sean Tate—out (MCL); Fred VanVleet—out (ACL)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Can Cam Johnson get into the flow?
While defense has been and will continue to be the Nuggets’ primary Achilles, two-fifths of their starting rotation have yet to really get into any kind of offensive rhythm this season. Christian Braun and Cam Johnson have both dealt with lingering injuries for the last two months, but with Aaron Gordon only recently making his return, the lack of reliable offensive production from the Nuggets’ starting two and three has put a lot of pressure on Jokic and Murray to be nearly flawless every night.
Cam, in particular, has struggled to figure out his role in Jokic Ball. To be fair, more than any other player on the roster, he needed the bulk of the regular season to catch up with a core that’s played together for half a decade. But Cam was also brought in as a replacement for the team’s third scoring option, their most dangerous three-point shooter, and an effective rebounder. Cam moves better on defense and has superior instincts on that end than MPJ, but the offensive drop-off has been stark. For the season, he’s averaging barely more than half what MPJ typically gave them the team and has yet to have any kind of meaningfully impactful single-game performance on offense. In the last five, he’s averaging just 6.8 points on 30% from the field.
The Nuggets have to start getting more from their 6’8 wing or a shakeup is probably needed when Watson gets back in the next week or two.
The thing to remember: Steven Adams is out for the season
The Rockets are still the best rebounding team in the league. But their depth took a serious blow when Steven Adams went down for the season with an ankle. Not only is Adams a quality defensive presence alongside Houston’s other trees in their matchup with Jokic, but he was also the best rebounder on a team that can struggle to hit shots at times.
Jok and AG should have more room to operate down low than they’ve had in the previous three games and to mitigate the rebounding advantage Houston has against most other teams. Hopefully they stick with bully ball, unlike Monday night’s second half against OKC.
The thing to bet: Two-Man Game Parlay | Jokic +30 points and +12 rebounds / Murray +25 points and +7 assists
Jokic has averaged about 33/11/8 against the Rockets this year and should have an easier time gobbling boards than in the last three. Houston’s perimeter length is a tough matchup for Jamal, but he’s scored on everyone this year (25.7 vs. HOU) and has averaged over seven assists in this matchup. Until Watson’s back and CB, AG, and CJ all round into playoff form, Jokic and Murray will continue to carry the bulk of the offensive load.
