Game 1 of Timberwolves vs. Nuggets III had many of the same elements we’ve come to expect from this matchup: physicality, runs, Nikola Jokić being unbothered by Rudy Gobert. Minnesota added a new wrinkle to the rivalry this year, though, calling out the officiating after just 60 minutes of losing play. Of particular outrage seemed to be a collective delusion that Jamal Murray—one of the most ethical guards in a league rewarding grifters—was foul-baiting, with a natural three-point shot being submitted as indisputable evidence by Wolves’ fans:
To be fair, Minnesota needed to come up with plausible cope because, after throwing a first-quarter punch, they were increasingly outmatched as the game progressed. Jamal was getting anywhere he wanted as he racked up a +13 line of 30/5/7. AG looked fully healthy and physically imposing. And the Joker, who got off to a slow start, ended up with a 25-point triple-double that seemed almost effortless. All of this as the Nuggets shot 2-91 from three.
Monday night’s rematch should showcase a better Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, both of whom had sub-standard playoff performances in Game 1. Ant doesn’t seem 100%, but even hampered, he’s one of the most game-changing scorers in the league. If Gobert continues to give the Wolves 17/10, too, the series is far from over. But the Nuggets also have another level to get to that they only sniffed in the opening salvo. Game 2 may very well set the tone for how the rest of the series will play out.
The Basics
Who: Denver Nuggets (54-28) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
Series: 1-0, Denver
When: 8:30 PM MST
Where: Ball Arena, Denver
How to watch/listen: NBC / Peacock / 92.5 FM
Rival Blog: Canis Hoopus
Injury Report | Nuggets: Peyton Watson—out (hamstring)
Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards—probable (knee)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Can the Nuggets improve their shooting efficiency from deep?
It’s still hard to believe Murray was 0-8 from three in a game where Minnesota had no answers for him. Mal wasn’t alone, though—collectively, the Nuggets shot just10-36 from outside (27.8%), which is quite a departure for the NBA’s most efficient three-point shooting team.
Mean reversion seems likely, though, as Minnesota’s defense didn’t contribute much to the shot variance. The Nuggets got open looks throughout the game, but only three of their lowest volume shooters (Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, and Spencer Jones) were hitting while Jokić, Murray, Johnson, and AG combined to go 5-27.
It’s hard to imagine this team getting far without a reversion back to the norm, but it’s equally hard to imagine a team averaging just under 40% for the season falling off so dramatically for an entire series. If the trend continues in Game 2, though, the Nuggets will become much more vulnerable to a streaky Wolves squad that can score in bunches (and with range) when they find their groove.
The thing to remember: The Nuggets had a 20-point lead in a Game 7 against Minnesota the last time these teams met in the Playoffs
Not that anyone is claiming the series is over after one game, but Nuggets fans would do well to remember that these teams have played a lot of tight playoff games this decade. This series has been weird as many of the games have been defined by massive runs and momentum shifts—both intra-game and between games. Even in the Nuggets 4-1 series win in their championship run, every game could’ve swung differently on just a handful of plays.
Both rosters present unique problems for the other that tend to snowball, and this series is likely to follow a similar trajectory. Expect a much better Ant performance in Game 2, e.g., which can expose some of the Nuggets’ main defensive weaknesses on the perimeter and with rim protection. Maybe a bit more than 0 points from Bones is coming, too, since the scorned guard is dying to land a few body blows in this matchup. Randle was essentially invisible in Game 1, as well, which also seems unlikely to continue.
Each game is going to be it’s own saga, though. That’s just how this matchup seems to go. Monday night will likely be no different, so if the Nuggets don’t shoot better from deep and adjust well to the Timberwolves’ revised game plan, Minnesota could leave Denver with the upper hand in the series.
The thing to bet: Two-Man Parlay | Jokić triple-double & Murray +9.5 assists
The ease with which Nikola got his 22nd playoff triple-double seems to be a leading indicator for the kind of numbers he’ll continue putting up this series. Murray’s assists could see an uptick in the next game, however, as Minnesota will likely revise their defensive scheme to keep the ball out of his hands more, especially early, which could give Mal a higher assist total than average. As always, though, parlay’s pay because they’re hard to hit, so size responsibly and DYOR.
