Apr 25, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach David Adelman calls a time out against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the fourth quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
After Game 1 of the 3 vs. 6 matchup in the Western Conference, the Nuggets looked like the clear favorites. Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray didn’t have efficient games, but both were getting open looks and Jamal, in particular, seemed unbothered by a Minnesota perimeter defense that had contained him in previous years. With Anthony Edwards visibly hobbled and a monster 17-point Rudy Gobert masterpiece behind them, the good guys seemed to be in control.
The three games since have been a demoralizing test of faith for NuggLife Nation. Jokić has been bottled up by generational defense by Gobert and a relentless Timberwolves attack. Murray has produced but is working for every look he gets while shooting just 26.5% from outside after one of the great shooting seasons from a guard in league history. Aaron Gordon is again trying to battle but isn’t able to give them the defensive presence they rely on for four quarters. And the Nuggets, who looked to be a legitimate threat to OKC for the title, are one game away from being eliminated and facing some tough questions in the off-season.
Denver fans’ belief in the team is fading, as the Nuggets face a first round exit for the first time since 2022.
Tonight’s Game 5 get-in prices are just $52… for a PLAYOFF game. 🤯
Typical of this see-saw rivalry, though, the Nuggets have caught a break with two disastrous injuries for the Wolves. With Donte Donte DiVincenzo—who had cooked the Nuggets in several games—and all-world athlete and scorer Anthony Edwards now sidelined indefinitely with serious leg injuries, the comeback has gotten easier. But Minnesota has been the mentally and physically tougher team even without their starting backcourt, so the Nuggets have an uphill climb to get back into this series and the hunt for a championship that seemed much more realistic two weeks ago.
The Basics
Who: Denver Nuggets (54-28) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
Minnesota Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo—out (Achilles); Anthony Edwards—out (knee)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: How the Nuggets defend Ayo Dosunmu
The Nuggets were unprepared to deal with the Wolves recent addition, Ayo Dosunmu, in Game 4. The athletic two-way guard repeatedly torched Denver’s perimeter defense at all three levels, scoring 43 points on nearly perfect shooting while wreaking full-court havoc on defense and in transition. By the time the Nuggets started doubling him more aggressively in the fourth, he was already in the zone and playing with a fire we have yet to see from a single Nuggets player all series.
AYO DOSUNMU GIVES WOLVES 3-1 LEAD WITH NIGHT FOR THE AGES.
🔥 43 PTS, most he's scored in NBA 🔥 13-17 FGM, 5-5 3PM, 12-12 FTM 🔥 68 PTS in Games 3+4
Dosunmu is the first player since Steph Curry in 2016 to score 40+ off the bench in the NBA Playoffs presented by @Google! pic.twitter.com/myApdo2aRg
Ayo will be a point of emphasis for the Nuggets’ defensive scheme heading into an elimination Game 5. With Ant and DiVincenzo out with brutal injuries, the Wolves don’t have a lot of other playmaking to turn to. Old man Mike Conley will likely start with Ayo in the backcourt, and while Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle can create their own shots, Gobert is a negative on that end, and the Wolves’ bench options are talented but streaky as well as defensive liabilities. Dosunmu, who hasn’t seen a defense scheming to stop him in his pro career yet can’t get off to another hot start or the pressure will quickly mount on a shaky Nuggets’ defense that may not be able to get much from its anchor, AG, who continues to battle through a nagging calf injury.
Peyton Watson’s return would be massive for the Nuggets’ chances in this series, but it seems unlikely that he will play at least until the next round, if then. So a team that got called out by McDaniels for their iffy defensive effort after Game 2 and has yet to respond convincingly will have to dig deep and keep constant pressure on if they’re going to survive to play another game.
The thing to remember: The Nuggets have to keep their energy up for all four quarters to extend the series
Tonight will be Denver Nuggets' 20th game 5 at home in team's NBA history (only best-of-7 series included). They are 17 and 2 in such games so far. The last game-5 loss at home was vs Dallas in May 1988. They won 14 straight game-5's at home in a row.
The Nuggets and Wolves have played a lot of weird games the last five years. For what feels like such a tightly contested series, many of their wars have been decided by huge runs and intra-game momentum swings with more blowouts for both sides than would be expected. Part of the reason for that is both teams present real problems for the other. The Nuggets can generate enough open looks while playing good enough defense to blow games open against an inferior offense. At the same time, Minnesota’s defensive tenacity can swarm and overwhelm the two-man game, especially as Jokić and Murray wear down in the second half.
In this series so far, the Nuggets offense has notably dropped off in the fourth quarters as Gobert, Randle, and McDaniels seem to be fairing better in a battle of attrition. Taking out the one outlier game where the Nuggets got down huge early and were scrambling to come back in the second half, they have averaged nearly12 points more in the first half than in the second. And while Jokić and Murray have good PRA at a glance, the efficiency hasn’t been there, especially in the fourth quarter where the best two-man game in basketball has historically dominated in the clutch:
GAME 2 | Jokic 2 pts (1-7) | Murray 2 pts (1-5)
GAME 3 | Jokic 6 pts (1-3) | Murray 4 pts (2-5)
GAME 4 | Jokic 4 pts (0-6) | Murray 11 pts (3-6)
A Wolves’ blogger previewed tonight’s game with this fair assessment:
Jaden has turned Jamal Murray into a man searching for clean oxygen. The full-court pressure, the length, the constant harassment, and the refusal to give him comfortable touches has worn Murray down possession by possession […] by the end of these games he has looked like someone who just finished running a marathon while being chased by a very angry spider.
Unless the Nuggets can build a 20-point lead in the first half of every remaining game, this is a trend that has to change. It’s partially on Adelman to lean into the Nuggets’ depth advantage and get Jokić and Murray the rest they need to be more fresh in the fourth, even if that means a negative net scoring margin earlier in the game. The altitude may also help tonight and in a theoretical Game 7 where the Wolves shorthanded team should fatigue as well. But if the Nuggets don’t figure out how to battle a more athletic team for a full four quarters, this series will be over and we’ll all be scratching our heads about where the team goes from here.
Apr 25, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Ayo Dosunmu (13) drives to the lane as Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) defends in the second quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
The thing to bet: Euro Parlay | Jokić +12 rebounds / Gobert +12 rebounds
With the injuries on both sides and the physical nature of this matchup, there should be plenty of rebounds for the two dominant big men to gobble up. Jokić is averaging 14.5 rebounds in the series to Gobert’s 11. But the Wolves will need Rudy on the court for as long as possible with the starting backcourt out, so expect an uptick in his production overall. Nikola adding his first 30+ scoring game of the series seems like a decent bet except there is a chance the Nuggets grab control early and end up blowing the game open with their season on the line, in which case a high scoring game becomes less likely.
