It seems like only a decade ago that Aaron Gordon took to the streets of Denver to party with Nuggets nation after cooling the Heat in five. Some things haven’t changed, though, like Bruce and Christian hustling, Murray deep in his bag, and Jokic in full control. Even baby PWat was spraying champagne around Ball Arena that unforgettable night.

Miami, on the other hand, is barely recognizable from their salad days. Gone are Heat Culture™ alums like Jimmy Butler, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, and Old Man Love. But Spoelstra and his tenacious, small-ball lineups are alive and well and cooking on offense. Coming off a 120-119 win over the Clippers, the Heat will no doubt bring energy, detail, and energy from the opening tip.

The Basics

Who: Miami Heat (4-3) vs Denver Nuggets (4-2)

When: Wed., Nov. 5, 7:00 PM MDT

Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

How to watch/listen: Altitude / + / Radio / outside while enjoying the Miami-like November weather

Rival Blog: All U Can Heat

Injury Report: Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Probable (calf) | Heat: Kasparas Jakucionis, Questionable (groin); Tyler Herro, Out (ankle)

The Three Things

The thing to watch for: Perimeter defense

The Heat will step foot on the Mile-High hardwood as a top 10 three-point-shooting team. Even with Tyler Herro sidelined with an ankle, the starting lineup features 3 players, including center Bam Adebayo, averaging 2.3 makes or better per game. This torrid outside shooting (39.5% for the team overall) has contributed to the Heat having the third-ranked offense in the NBA and a +6.9 average scoring differential.

So the Nuggets point-of-attack defense will have work to do. While Denver has the number one offense in the league—and a top 10 defense, surprisingly(?)—they could struggle to keep up with the Heat if the game turns into an outside shooting contest. The Nuggets have other advantages, specifically at center where Bam and the other bigs will be physically outmatched by Jokic and Jonas, but if the good guys allow the Heat shooters to get off early, they could be playing uphill against the margin, giving life to a team that never needs a morale boost.

The thing to remember: The Nuggets own the Heat

Since the 2022-23 season, the Nuggets are 10-1 against the Heat, including the 4-1 beatdown in the 2023 Finals. The reason for their dominance is obvious: Miami has no answer for Jokic. As good as Bam is defensively, he’s just too small to bother the big man. It’s not just Jok, though—at nearly every position, the Heat are undersized in this matchup down to their 6’3 shooting guard Norman Powell.

Of course, Powell has caused fits for the Nuggets’ perimeter defense in the past, so size isn’t all that matters. If the Nuggets aren’t committed to fighting through screens and challenging Miami’s shooters all game long, this scrappy Heat team is more than lethal enough to steal a win at altitude and notch a small but welcomed revenge win for Heat Culture™.

The thing to bet: Jokic +11 rebounds

In the 10 games Jokic has played against the Heat since 2022-23, he’s averaging 12.6 boards. Spoelstra went back to his preferred small-ball lineup in the Heat’s last win, a strategy that will gift rebounds to the Joker if it continues. Even if he tries to rotate in Jovic or Ware, the Serbian savant should have no trouble continuing to sweep the glass against an undersized opponent.