The Nuggets look to shrug off Saturday night’s one-point loss in Orlando against a team they’ve dominated for half a decade. In the second stop during a season-long 7-game road trip, Denver will face the always competitive Miami Heat, whose vaunted culture has alternated between red hot and ice cold in a tale of two seasons.
Winners of two straight and still top 6 in points-per-game, the Heat will be highly motivated to get a win and unphased by Jokic and Murray’s ability to score at-will. The first team to 120 probably wins, but maybe the Nuggets will make the game-winning shot this time if they again find themselves in a tit-for-tat shootout.
The Basics
Who: Denver Nuggets (22-9) at Miami Heat (17-15)
When: 5:30 PM MST
Where: Kaseya (formerly “Get Rich Quick on Crypto Scams”) Center, Miami
How to watch/listen: Altitude 2 / + / 92.5 FM
Rival blog: Heat Nation
The Matchup
| Position | Nuggets | Heat | Advantage |
| PG | Jamal Murray | Davion Mitchell | Nuggets |
| SG | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Pelle Larsson | Nuggets |
| SF | Peyton Watson | Norman Powell | Heat |
| PF | Spencer Jones | Andrew Wiggins | Heat |
| C | Nikola Jokic | Bam Adebayo | Nuggets |
| Bench | Bruce Brown, Jonas Valanciunas, Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther | Jaime Jaquez Jr., Dru Smith, Nikola Jovic, Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis | Toss-up |
Injury report* | Nuggets: Christian Braun – out (ankle); Aaron Gordon – out (hamstring); Cam Johnson – out (knee)
Heat: Bam Adebayo – probable (back); Tyler Herro – out (toe); Terry Rozier – out (leave)
*The official injury report was not available at time of writing.
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Where is the defense going to come from?
Nikola Jokic is having his best season yet, which seems insane even as I write it. Jamal Murray is on track to be a first-time All-star and maybe even an All-NBA selection in what is clearly his best regular season. Peyton Watson has elevated his game in an important contract year. And Jonas ValanΔiΕ«nas and Tim Hardaway Jr. have been everything the team could’ve hoped for when they shook up the roster over the summer to reinforce the bench.
But with a biblical plague of injuries to the starting five, the Nuggets’ historically great offense may not be enough to get them through a long road trip successfully unless they get more on defense from everyone. After taking control of the game in Orlando, Denver gave up 79 points in the second half to a Magic team averaging 117 PPG (14th in the NBA). Jok was rightfully frustrated with the loss: “We didn’t play any defense in the second half,” he said after. “They were just laying the ball in.”
The fix is unlikely to come from a schematic adjustment or rotation shakeup. The stoppers should be on the way soon, as both Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon are near the 4-6 week recovery times. Their returns will be felt immediately on the defensive end and restore the bench depth that helped Jokic and Murray stay fresher to close out tight games. But neither is expected to play tonight, so if the Nuggets can’t cobble together a functional defensive strategy with more execution and energy than they found against the Magic, they will likely have dug themselves a quick two-game hole against inferior Eastern Conference competition.
The thing to remember: The Nuggets last regular season loss to the Heat was in The Bubble
There’s no way to be charitable to Heat Culture here—the Nuggets own this team. Since August 2020, Denver has won 14 of 15 against Miami, including 11 straight. Bam is a great defensive big but can’t handle Jokic’s size and range. Herro is seemingly always hurt when these teams play. Nuggets-killer Norman Powell has barely settled into South Beach and, despite leading the team with 23 in the first game, wasn’t able to break the spell (Heat 112, Nuggets 122). From top-to-bottom, Denver has been a nightmare opponent for a team that often runs out scrappy small-ball lineups with no realistic shot at defending the Jokic/Murray two-man game.
This season, though, the Heat have had spurts of elite offensive production that makes them dangerous. Through the first 21 games, Miami was averaging an out-of-this-world-unless-you’re-the-Nuggets 125 PPG, fueled largely by high-octane shooting. They’ve come back to Earth, averaging a lukewarm 107 PPG while losing 8 of 9. But the offense may be reigniting as the Heat exploded for their 6th 140+ point game against the (admittedly) tanking Pacers after beating the Hawks in Atlanta, 126-111.
Even with all of the injuries to the starting five, Jokic and Murray are going to score on this team. But can the Nuggets get enough stops to prevent a second Florida squad from hanging 125+ on them in as many games?
The thing to bet: Over 245.5 total points (-108)
It’s hard to imagine this game turning into a defensive struggle given the injuries and level of scoring both teams routinely achieve. Until the Nuggets can prove they can get stops in the second half again (and NBA officials stop letting offenses do whatever they want), the odds favor high scores, especially when the Nuggets play other teams averaging 120+ PPG on the road.
