The schedule has softened, the injuries have (mostly) resolved, and the Nuggets are finally handling inferior competition as the regular season winds to a close. It feels like a loaded team—one that several unbiased analysts picked to win it all at the beginning of the season—has become an afterthought. Nikola Jokić has drifted down to third or fourth(!?) on most MVP ballots, and the Spurs and Celtics have grabbed the attention of the talking-head casuals on ESPN and elsewhere.
The Nuggets, though, are going about their business, a quiet 8-2 with the league’s second-longest winning streak (6) and another game against tanking Utah. Denver is 3-0 against the Jazz this year, but two have been tight, and Utah is always an annoying place to get a road win. Several forwards continue to be banged up, as well, but a few extra days of rest might have been enough to let them heal up. We’ll know more by game times.
The Basics
Who: Denver Nuggets (48-28) at Utah Jazz (21-55)
When: 7:00 PM MST
Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City
How to watch/listen: Altitude TV / + / FM
Rival Blog: SLC Dunk
Injury Report | Nuggets: Aaron Gordon—probable (calf); Spencer Jones—out (hamstring); Zeke Nnaji—out (hip)
Utah Jazz: Isaiah Collier—out (hamstring); Keyonte George—out (hamstring); Elijah Harkless—questionable (hamstring); Jaren Jackson Jr.—out (knee); Walker Kessler—out (shoulder); Lauri Markkanen—out (hip); Jusuf Nurkić—out (nose)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Down-low dominance
The main worry entering Wednesday night is the health of Aaron Gordon after he tweaked his calf in Denver’s 116-93 blowout win over Golden State on Sunday. But he’s listed as probable now, so it doesn’t seem serious, which is good news because the Nuggets need him on defense against everyone, even when playing tanking teams. When AG plays, the Nuggets improve from the 21st ranked team in defensive rating to 4th. Or put another way, they go from being a beatable score-only team to a legitimate threat for a title.
Gordon’s versatility and athleticism allow Joker to exert more energy on the offensive end where he continues to put up historic numbers. The somehow-no-longer-an-MVP-frontrunner is averaging 27.9 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.8 assists on the season and will finish the season for the second time averaging a triple-double. With Walker Kessler, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jusef Nurkić out for Salt Lake, Utah has no one to slow down AG in the dunker’s spot or Nikola (except maybe a random guard hanging on his arms, which seems to be legal these days). Kyle Filipowski—the young rookie doing his best to hold down the middle for the Jazz — did have 25 points against Denver just five days ago
But Denver’s bigs can probably deal.
The thing to remember: The Nuggets still have a shot at the three seed
Granted, it would help if the Lakers would stop winning (currently 9-1 in their last 10). But the Nuggets trail LA by only two games with six left (plus the Lakers’ annoying tiebreaker), and neither team may be all that concerned about their precise seeding since they’ll likely have homecourt either way against Minnesota or Houston.
Still, clawing back up to third after the starts and stops this season would feel like a momentum boost heading into a first round with homecourt, and in the off chance of a major upset at the top, a higher seeding is usually preferable once a top-four spot is secured.
The thing to bet: Nuggets -16.5/17.5
With seeding, momentum, and rhythm to play for—and given Utah’s injury report plus activated tank mode—probably safe to take the over for the Nuggets tonight. If the spread isn’t all that attractive, a Jok triple double with monster rebounds is probably a clean shot too.
