The NBA Player Rating Addition Edition

It's late. Very very late, or ridiculously early, depending on your point of view. I have fixation issues when I get to thinking about data, and had an idea tonight, when seeing some player ratings on CBS to how those ratings would equate to team success, i.e., wins and losses. This curiosity would prove to be a bad idea. This from the guy whose uncle once offered him five bucks to untie a fishing line snarl on a lakeshore after I decided I wasn't as interested in our fishing outing as he'd hoped. Five hours later, I had my five bucks. Eight-year-old OCD slave labor is what that was. I loved it. I have a problem.

The CBS player ratings made me wonder where Nuggets players had landed, and so I went out to CBS’ player ratings page online, and downloaded the file to a spreadsheet. From that spreadsheet, I intended to loop every player back in under their team and see what an aggregate score of their player ratings would be. If player ratings equated to team success, then surely the higher teams would have far higher aggregate player ranking scores, right? Hmmm…

Four hours later, I finally had my answer. I'm proud to report that (drumroll, please)

Player ratings (at least as equated by CBS.com) don't mean diddly-jack-squat to team success.

Wait, back up… four hours? Yeah, see, I love data, but it doesn't love me. My relationship with data is exactly like my relationship to garlic. They both taste delicious, and they both give me gas. But I digest. Er, digress. Both.

After I got that data set into the spreadsheet, I don't know how to write query strings or anything like that, let alone output those results. So I built the lists from scratch. And I was going to prove my point about the player ratings by looping in every player. All 438 of them. Yeah… my data scientist pals laugh their asses off at me.

About an hour in, the data was already giving me my answers, just in watching the individual teams flow in from the top of the player rating list. I wish I could have animated the build, it was visually telling. Seven teams had five players on their list before the last team to have none (Indiana) notched a player. A dozen players later, I had to decide if I was going to tack on sixth members for some teams before getting a couple of teams player number two or three. It would take me three more hours just to drop the players in. And it's already obvious the teams are filling in sporadically. How could I see something in this data and not lose the work? I may not have been successful.

I filled each team in to their top five ‘player rated' players (even if a player came in off the bench), and added up the aggregate scores. The list of players who were sixth/seventh/etc. men was as intereting as the guys on this list. Though the top teams have higher scores than the lowest teams, there are 300+ point teams in the lowest 5, and teams barely above 300 in the top six. Indiana had an aggregate score 17 points lower than your Denver Nuggets, and still were five spots ahead in overall league rankings. Example after example of no pattern. You all may see pattern here I'm not (do higher ranked teams have more starters in their top five? Do more successful teams have high-player-rated positional overlaps? Can I have just a little bit of peril?)

Here's the data that didn't tell me a thing after a long evening.

57.77

TEAM
PLAYER	RATING
1. Golden State Warriors
4. Stephen Curry, GS	81.1
16. Klay Thompson, GS	75.95
44. Draymond Green, GS	68.27
78. Harrison Barnes, GS	61.99
138. Marreese Speights, GS	54.33
	341.64
2. Atlanta Hawks
22. Paul Millsap, ATL	73.27
30. Jeff Teague, ATL	70.43
32. Al Horford, ATL	70.09
45. Kyle Korver, ATL	68.1
85. DeMarre Carroll, ATL	61.17
	343.06
3. Houston Rockets
1. James Harden, HOU	86.25
54. Trevor Ariza, HOU	66.16
71. Dwight Howard, HOU	63.11
79. Josh Smith, HOU	61.78
97. Donatas Motiejunas, HOU	59.24
	336.54
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Blake Griffin, LAC	80.29
10. Chris Paul, LAC	78.62
27. DeAndre Jordan, LAC	71.69
76. J.J. Redick, LAC	62.19
89. Jamal Crawford, LAC	60.39
	353.18
5. Memphis Grizzlies
13. Marc Gasol, MEM	76.62
32. Mike Conley, MEM	70.09
34. Zach Randolph, MEM	69.99
65. Jeff Green, MEM	64.7
81. Courtney Lee, MEM	61.75
	343.15
6. San Antonio Spurs
40. Tim Duncan, SA	68.71
66. Danny Green, SA	64.64
98. Kawhi Leonard, SA	59.14
125. Cory Joseph, SA	56.31
127. Manu Ginobili, SA	56.11
	304.91
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. LeBron James, CLE	82.9
11. Kyrie Irving, CLE	76.88
21. Kevin Love, CLE	73.97
94. Tristan Thompson, CLE	59.63
108. Timofey Mozgov, CLE
	351.15
8. Portland Trail Blazers
8. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR	79.11
9. Damian Lillard, POR	79.06
49. Wesley Matthews, POR	67.38
57. Arron Afflalo, POR	65.57
90. Nicolas Batum, POR	60.12
	351.24
9. Chicago Bulls
6. Jimmy Butler, CHI	79.63
7. Pau Gasol, CHI	79.27
95. Derrick Rose, CHI	59.62
116. Taj Gibson, CHI	57
139. Joakim Noah, CHI	54.3
	329.82
10. Dallas Mavericks
28. Monta Ellis, DAL	71.64
37. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL	69.29
38. Tyson Chandler, DAL	69.08
50. Chandler Parsons, DAL	67.15
87. Rajon Rondo, DAL	60.69
	337.85
11. Toronto Raptors
14. Kyle Lowry, TOR	76.36
74. Jonas Valanciunas, TOR	62.48
91. Amir Johnson, TOR	59.93
103. Lou Williams, TOR	58.39
114. Patrick Patterson, TOR	57.05
	314.21
12. Washington Wizards
15. John Wall, WAS	76
68. Marcin Gortat, WAS	63.66
72. Bradley Beal, WAS	62.91
86. Paul Pierce, WAS	61.09
136. Nene, WAS	54.59
	318.25
13. New Orleans Pelicans
2. Anthony Davis, NO	85.82
31. Tyreke Evans, NO	70.2
51. Jrue Holiday, NO	66.83
84. Ryan Anderson, NO	61.54
132. Omer Asik, NO	55.6
	339.99
14. Oklahoma City Thunder
39. Russell Westbrook, OKC	68.85
48. Serge Ibaka, OKC	67.41
58. Kevin Durant, OKC	65.54
67. Reggie Jackson, OKC < /td>	63.72
146. Steven Adams, OKC	53.39
	318.91
15. Milwaukee Bucks
29. Brandon Knight, MIL	70.99
77. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL	62.14
101. Khris Middleton, MIL	58.86
128. O.J. Mayo, MIL	55.86
147. Jared Dudley, MIL	53.32
	301.17
16. Boston Celtics
59. Jared Sullinger, BOS	65.51
96. Avery Bradley, BOS	59.45
110. Evan Turner, BOS	57.43
118. Kelly Olynyk, BOS	56.88
136. Tyler Zeller, BOS	54.59
	293.86
17, Phoenix Suns
26. Eric Bledsoe, PHO	71.79
42. Goran Dragic, PHO	68.57
61. Markieff Morris, PHO	65.24
104. Isaiah Thomas, PHO	58.32
113. P.J. Tucker, PHO	57.2
	321.12
18. Brooklyn Nets
40. Joe Johnson, BKN	68.71
93. Jarrett Jack, BKN	59.8
112. Deron Williams, BKN	57.33
121. Mason Plumlee, BKN	56.5
131. Brook Lopez, BKN	55.74
	298.08
19. Indiana Pacers
92. Solomon Hill, IND	59.84
111. Roy Hibbert, IND	57.39
134. Rodney Stuckey, IND	55.22
141. David West, IND	54.09
149. Luis Scola, IND	53.27
	279.81
20. Utah Jazz
19. Gordon Hayward, UTA	74.8
45. Derrick Favors, UTA	68.1
82. Enes Kanter, UTA	61.7
83. Trey Burke, UTA	61.68
120. Rudy Gobert, UTA	56.57
	322.85
21. Miami Heat
25. Chris Bosh, MIA	72.14
52. Dwyane Wade, MIA	66.76
53. Luol Deng, MIA	66.21
99. Mario Chalmers, MIA	59.11
179. Shawne Williams, MIA	50.23
	314.45
22. Charlotte Hornets
24. Kemba Walker, CHA	72.16
60. Al Jefferson, CHA	65.43
130. Gerald Henderson, CHA	55.79
157. Cody Zeller, CHA	52.75
178. Marvin Williams, CHA	50.27
	296.4
23. Detroit Pistons
47. Greg Monroe, DET	67.9
56. Andre Drummond, DET	65.76
72. Brandon Jennings, DET	62.91
100. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DET	59.03
159. D.J. Augustin, DET	52.53
	308.13
24. Denver Nuggets
19. Ty Lawson, DEN	74.8
62. Wilson Chandler, DEN	65.05
80. Kenneth Faried, DEN	61.77
204. Jameer Nelson, DEN	47.6
207. JJ Hickson, DEN	47.4
	296.62
25. Sacramento Kings
17. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC	75.62
18. Rudy Gay, SAC	75.3
35. Darren Collison, SAC	69.75
88. Ben McLemore, SAC	60.5
184. Jason Thompson, SAC	49.43
	330.6
26. Orlando Magic
12. Nikola Vucevic, ORL	76.75
36. Tobias Harris, ORL	69.44
64. Victor Oladipo, ORL	64.81
102. Evan Fournier, ORL	58.73
122. Channing Frye, ORL	56.44
	326.17
27. Los Angeles Lakers
43. Kobe Bryant, LAL	68.35
75. Jordan Hill, LAL	62.2
105. Carlos Boozer, LAL	58.23
109. Wesley Johnson, LAL	57.64
115. Jeremy Lin, LAL	57.02
	303.44
28. Philadelphia 76ers
70. Michael Carter-Williams, PHI	63.54
126. Nerlens Noel, PHI (Rookie)	56.18
135. K.J. McDaniels, PHI (Rookie)	54.7
142. Henry Sims, PHI	53.85
143. Robert Covington, PHI	53.68
	281.95
29. New York Knicks
23. Carmelo Anthony, NY	72.84
154. Tim Hardaway Jr., NY	53.1
170. Amar’e Stoudemire, NY	51.06
181. Jose Calderon, NY	50.04
192. Shane Larkin, NY	49.15
	276.19
30. Minnesota Timberwolves
55. Andrew Wiggins, MIN (Rookie)	65.84
63. Gorgui Dieng, MIN	64.84
69. Thaddeus Young, MIN	63.63
117. Mo Williams, MIN	56.9
145. Shabazz Muhammad, MIN	53.48
	304.69

Maybe you see something in there I don't… The experiment was a failure, but:

"It's not an experiment if you know it's going to work."

-Jeff Bezos

My wife occasionally shuffles in around 3 am to just shake her head at me writing free and unneccesary basketball drivel and wanders back to sleep. Seems to be something to this beauty sleep thing, looking at us both. There's data you can actually use. Just remember my news flash that you never ever already knew… Player ratings do NOT equate to overall team success. Shocking. Please go back to your homes, nothing to see here.

And miles to go before I sleep. Good morning, Stiff(s). There's a phrase you don't see every day.

#NeverGonnaMakeTheFiveThirtyEight

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